| With the recent resignation of Sprint Nextel CEO Gary Forsee raising speculation as to the long term prospects of Sprint Nextel’s WiMAX effort, Xohm, and news that Clearwire has delayed its WiMAX rollout in at least one market, we take a look at how these developments, along with the demise of the Sprint Nextel/Clearwire WiMAX partnership, could affect the future of services riding on the next-generation wireless technology. We provide our views of the likely success factors and challenges for WiMAX initiatives over the next 12 – 18 months.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
GATING FACTORS
Service Ubiquity
--Sprint Nextel Plans
-- Clearwire Plans
Device Availability/Affordability/Quality
Competitive Technologies
STRATEGIC OUTLOOK
TABLE OF FIGURES
Fig. 1: Sprint/Clearwire Market Split Under Joint Deployment Plan (now cancelled)
Fig. 2: Clearwire Markets 3Q 2007
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Mobile WIMAX Still Has Inside Track for Next-Generation Wireless Service, Report Concludes
SILVER SPRING, MD—An emerging technology known as mobile WiMAX, which stands to bring consumers an expanded array of mobile video, data and voice services, will be delayed in getting to market, but will not be a failure as some wireless industry observers have begun to fear, Pike & Fischer predicts in a new market research report.
Despite some deployment hurdles, mobile WiMAX will hit the market much sooner than competing fourth-generation or 4G solutions being embraced by Verizon Wireless and AT&T, the Silver Spring, Md.-based research firm points out. And WiMAX will offer higher speeds than the current crop of mobile data technologies can support, P&F adds.
The recent decision by Sprint Nextel and Clearwire Communications to abandon a joint WiMAX deployment fueled speculation that WiMAX might end up a technology bust in the United States. But Sprint will continue to invest heavily in building its own WiMAX network, despite recent financial troubles, P&F predicts in its report. And Clearwire, a startup based in Washington state, has already committed itself to building a WiMAX network that will accommodate consumer devices made by the company’s investors, which include Intel and Motorola, the report states.
But cell phone makers will have to bring a critical number of WiMAX-enabled devices to the market in 2008 in order to keep them affordable for consumers, cautioned P&F Chief Analyst Tim McElgunn, author of the report. At least one of the handsets is expected to launch with a price tag of $1,500. And if customers encounter service problems – such as dropped calls – they may decide WiMAX service isn’t worth the price, McElgunn said.
Pike & Fischer, a BNA company, offers a host of legal and business products covering the telecommunications industry. This new report, U.S. Mobile WiMAX Market Update, is priced at $499 and can be purchased at www.broadbandadvisoryservices.com. For analyst commentary or to request a briefing, contact 856-751-6723 / tmcelgunn@pf.com.
For information about Pike & Fischer’s Broadband Advisory Services, visit www.broadbandadvisoryservices.com or contact Jonathan Wentworth Ping at 212-576-8741 / jping@pf.com.
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Tim McElgunn
Tim McElgunn, our Chief Analyst, has more than 20 years of experience and expertise in market sizing, forecasting, segmentation and share analysis in emerging and legacy segments of the telecommunications industry. He focuses on the business strategies and competitive status of U.S. cable companies, telephone companies, satellite TV providers and broadband-enabled application providers such as Google, Yahoo and Microsoft. Before joining BAS in November 2006, Tim headed up U.S. consumer broadband analysis for eight years at Stratecast, a division of Frost & Sullivan. He also held senior analyst positions at both Datapro/NBI and Gartner Dataquest. Contact Tim at 856-751-6723 / tmcelgunn@pf.com.
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