Broadband Competition Outlook 2009
Abstract The cable industry and telephone companies are facing some unsettling prospects in terms of customer growth and revenue increases – all the result of the economic downturn. Consumers are spending less as their job security becomes more tenuous and their discretionary income plummets. This stands to put a damper on spending for communications products and services in 2009. In this report, we offer more details on these trends and provide our forecasts on customer growth for new multichannel video services, high-speed Internet, IP telephony, and the features and applications that ride on those technologies. Among our projections is a forecast of 5.7 million new broadband households - down 12% from 2008 levels. The report includes 11 charts and tables. Table of Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction Multichannel Video High-speed Internet Telephony Mobility Conclusion: Impact of a New Administration About the Authors Also from Pike & Fischer About Pike & Fischer’s Broadband Advisory Services TABLE OF FIGURES Figure 1: Total Multichannel Video Households Figure 2: Projected Multichannel Video Market Shares, YE 2009 Figure 3: Basic Cable Subscribers Figure 4: Digital Cable Subscriptions Figure 5: DBS Subscribers Figure 6: Telco On-Network Video Subscribers Figure 7: Projected U.S. High-speed Internet Subscribers Figure 8: Projected High-speed Internet Subscribers, Cable vs. Telco Figure 9: Projected RBOC Total Access Lines Figure 10: Projected Residential VoIP Subscribers Figure 11: Percentage of U.S. Wireless Subscribers With Broadband-capable Phones Press Release FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Broadband Sign-ups To Fall By 12 Percent in 2009, Forecast Shows Silver Spring, MD—Approximately 5.7 million U.S. households will become new high-speed Internet customers this year, marking a 12% decline in subscriber growth compared to 2008, according to a new forecast by market research provider Pike & Fischer. The total number of broadband-connected homes will reach nearly 74.5 million by the end of the year, representing about 63 percent of all U.S. households, P&F says in its new report, Broadband Competition Outlook 2009. The cable industry will capture about 75 percent of new broadband subscribers, according to the report. While top telephone companies such as Verizon and AT&T are providing new fiber-optic Internet services that can exceed the speeds offered by cable, most of their service areas are covered only by DSL (digital subscriber line) service, which consumers are increasingly spurning because its speeds are slower than cable. P&F bases its forecast on the nation’s economic crisis, which is increasing unemployment rates and slowing housing starts. Consumers will spend less on communications services as their job security becomes more tenuous and their discretionary income plummets. However, broadband customer growth could exceed forecasts if the incoming Obama administration succeeds in its plan to expand broadband availability as part of a major economic stimulus package, notes Scott Sleek, director of P&F’s Broadband Advisory Services. “Government initiatives, such as tax incentives and loan guarantees to help expand broadband infrastructure into underserved areas, could enable service providers to bolster their customer counts,” Sleek said. “In addition, policy-makers are likely to support training and education programs aimed at increasing customer adoption of broadband. These steps could offset what will be an inevitable slowdown in subscriber growth.” Pike & Fischer, a BNA company, offers a host of legal and business products covering the telecommunications industry. The report, Broadband Competition Outlook 2009, is priced at $659 and is available for purchase at www.broadbandadvisoryservices.com. For analyst commentary or to request a briefing, contact Scott Sleek at 301-562-1530 x291 / ssleek@pf.com. For information about Pike & Fischer’s Broadband Advisory Services, visit www.broadbandadvisoryservices.com or contact Jonathan Wentworth Ping at 973-718-4703 / jping@pf.com. About the Analyst |
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